My current probability estimate with regards to the new COVID strain discovered in the UK and the US response. 1 in 3 says we're f***ed.
Review of the LessWrong 2018 essay collection on epistemology, from how it smells to what it says about the state of the Rationality community in 2020.
What is a good life? What can mere numbers offer on this question? They offer freedom from other people's stories, and insight into yourself.