Please fill out my short research survey on the beliefs and habits of my readers. The results, along with my hypotheses, will be published on Putanumonit. The survey is anonymous, multiple-choice, and should take 5 minutes to complete. If you have any comments about the survey, feel free to post them below.
Thank you!
URL (same as the link above): https://forms.gle/Dwbvr5N7pHFDzpZv5
PUTANUMONIT 
A few comments on the questions:
Should it be in absolute or relative to each other?
I’m not sure if you intend to introduce this ambiguity, but it might introduce some noise on the responses.
LikeLike
“I believe that humanity’s decline and collapse are more likely” and “I believe we can […] achieve a transhumanist utopia” aren’t mutually exclusive (and IMHO are both true), since the first option asks for probability and the second only for possibility.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I agree. I think there’s an almost 0 chance the world looks similar to how it is today in 100, and almost certain there is either an apocalypse or utopia. I could not say for the life of me the relative probabilities, since there are so many unique ways to achieve apocalypse and utopia, not to mention the anthropic principle confuses the probability of apocalypse even more, but I think there’s a significant probability for both.
Although I do think there’s a basically 0% chance of a climate change based apocalypse, there’s a high probability climate change could cause anywhere in the region of hundreds of billions to tens of trillions of damage over decades, but very unlikely it’d wipe out a significant fraction of the human population.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I agree with the comments above. Jacob, if you update the survey, or do a follow up in the future, an interesting version of this question might be to see what likelihoods people give for decline/collapse relative to something more utopian.
I also think the question asking about “feelings about social justice and progressive politics” is conflating two different things. There may be a (strong?) relationship between the two things, but I’d wary of tying them together. It might have been interesting to have asked the two questions separately and seen the relationship between responses.
Keep up the great work!
LikeLike